A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
